predictable-revenue

---
name: predictable-revenue
description: 'Build a scalable outbound B2B sales machine with specialized roles (SDR, AE, CSM). Use when the user mentions "outbound sales", "Cold Calling 2.0", "cold email sequences", "sales pipeline", "SDR process", "sales development", "build an outbound sales team", or "fill my pipeline". Also trigger when setting up a B2B SaaS sales team from scratch or building a lead-qualification framework to improve close rates. Covers the three lead types (seeds/nets/spears), role specialization, the referral-email method, ANUM qualification, and pipeline math. For offer design, see hundred-million-offers. For persuasion science, see influence-psychology.'
license: MIT
metadata:
  author: wondelai
  version: "1.4.0"
---

# Predictable Revenue Framework

A systematic approach to building a scalable, predictable B2B sales machine — the outbound prospecting system that helped Salesforce add $100M in recurring revenue.

## Core Principle

**Predictable lead generation drives predictable revenue.** The biggest mistake in sales is having the same people prospect AND close — specialization creates a repeatable, scalable machine. Traditional cold calling is dead; Cold Calling 2.0 (mass, personalized cold emails that generate referrals to the right person) is the new outbound.

## Scoring

**Goal: 10/10.** Score a sales process 0-10 by awarding 2 points for each of the five [Quick Diagnostic](#quick-diagnostic) rows it satisfies (prospecting/closing separated, defined outbound process, 3-month pipeline predictability, known lead-type mix, standardized SDR→AE handoff). Bands: **9-10** = role separation plus a repeatable process that predicts pipeline; **5-6** = some specialization but ad-hoc prospecting or unpredictable pipeline; **≤3** = one person prospects and closes, revenue depends on heroics. Always give the current score and the specific diagnostic rows blocking 10/10.

## The Three Types of Leads

**Not all leads are equal — treat them differently.**

| Type | Source | Conversion | Cost | Example |
|------|--------|------------|------|---------|
| **Seeds** | Word of mouth, referrals, organic | Highest | Lowest (takes time) | Customer referral, NPS-driven |
| **Nets** | Marketing campaigns, inbound | Medium | Medium | Content, SEO, webinars |
| **Spears** | Outbound prospecting | Lower but predictable | Higher (people-intensive) | Cold Calling 2.0 |

**Key insight:** Most companies over-invest in nets and under-invest in spears; seeds are the best but can't be manufactured quickly. Invest accordingly — customer success and referral programs (seeds), content and paid acquisition (nets), SDR team (spears).

See [references/lead-types.md](references/lead-types.md) when deciding where to invest — it sizes the seeds/nets/spears budget split by company stage.

## Sales Role Specialization

**The #1 principle: separate prospecting from closing.** When AEs prospect and close, they hate prospecting and pipeline becomes feast-or-famine.

| Role | Focus | Metrics |
|------|-------|---------|
| **SDR (Sales Development Rep)** | Outbound prospecting → qualified opportunities | Qualified meetings/month |
| **MDR (Market Development Rep)** | Inbound lead qualification | Qualified leads/month |
| **AE (Account Executive)** | Close deals | Revenue closed, win rate |
| **CSM (Customer Success Manager)** | Retain and grow accounts | Retention, expansion revenue |

### SDR (Sales Development Rep)

Generate qualified pipeline: research target accounts, send Cold Calling 2.0 emails, get referred to the right person, qualify with ANUM, pass to AEs. Not their job: closing, inbound leads, or existing customers. One SDR typically generates 10-20 qualified opportunities per month — measure opportunities, response rate, meetings booked, and pipeline value.

### AE (Account Executive)

Close deals from qualified pipeline: run discovery, demo, negotiate, close, hand off to CSM. Not their job: prospecting (SDR), inbound qualification (MDR), or post-sale management (CSM). Measure revenue closed, win rate, average deal size, and sales cycle length.

### CSM (Customer Success Manager)

Retain and grow accounts: onboard, drive adoption, surface expansion opportunities, prevent churn. Measure net revenue retention, churn rate, expansion revenue, and NPS/CSAT.

**The virtuous cycle:** SDR generates pipeline → AE closes → CSM retains/grows → happy customer refers (Seeds).

See [references/roles.md](references/roles.md) when defining a new role or org chart — it has full charters, career paths, and hiring profiles for each role.

## Cold Calling 2.0

**Outbound prospecting that replaces traditional cold calling**, which fails on every front: 1-3% connection rate, gatekeepers, brand damage, no scalability.

```
1. Build list → 2. Send mass email → 3. Get referral → 4. Call the referral → 5. Qualify
```

### Step 1: Build Target Account List

Define your Ideal Customer Profile (company size, industry, tech stack, geography, pain points), then build the list via LinkedIn Sales Navigator, ZoomInfo/Apollo/Clearbit, or industry directories. Target 200-500 accounts per SDR per quarter.

### Step 2: The Referral Email

**The core innovation: don't email the decision maker — email above them and ask for a referral down.** Senior people forward emails, and referrals get 3-5x higher response because the introduction comes from inside the company. The email asks one thing — "who is the right person?" — under 100 words, no pitch, no attachments, no links, easy to forward. Response rate: 9-15% vs. 1-3% for traditional cold emails. For the verbatim template, subject-line open-rate table, and the full Day 1/3/7/14/30 sequence bodies, open [references/cold-calling-2.md](references/cold-calling-2.md).

### Step 3: Follow Up

| Day | Action |
|-----|--------|
| 1 | Send referral email |
| 3 | Follow up if no response |
| 7 | Second follow-up (different angle) |
| 14 | Break-up email ("Should I close your file?") |
| 30 | Re-engage (new trigger event or content) |

The **break-up email** on Day 14 often draws the highest response in the sequence — people respond to losing the opportunity (scarcity).

### Step 4: Qualify with ANUM

| Criteria | Question | Strong Signal | Weak Signal |
|----------|----------|---------------|-------------|
| **A**uthority | Can this person decide? | Decision maker or strong influencer | No buying power |
| **N**eed | Do they have the problem you solve? | Active pain, seeking solutions | "Nice to have" |
| **U**rgency | When must they solve it? | This quarter, budget allocated | "Someday" |
| **M**oney | Can they afford it? | Budget exists, within range | No budget, too expensive |

Call structure: rapport (2 min) → set agenda ("understand your situation, see if there's a fit") → discovery questions with ANUM built in (10-15 min) → next steps (if qualified, schedule AE demo).

### Step 5: Hand Off to AE

Include account background and ICP match, contact details and role, pain points, ANUM notes, agreed next steps, and competitive intel. SDR introduces AE on a brief 3-way call or email, then drops off.

**Ethical boundary:** Comply with spam laws (CAN-SPAM, GDPR) and honor opt-outs immediately — including removing a hostile "stop emailing me" from the sequence on the spot, not at the next scheduled touch.

See [references/qualification.md](references/qualification.md) when running the ANUM discovery call — it has the full discovery question bank per criterion.

## Pipeline Math

Work backward from the revenue goal:

```
Revenue Goal ÷ Average Deal Size = Deals Needed
Deals Needed ÷ Win Rate = Opportunities Needed
Opportunities Needed ÷ SDR Conversion = Prospects Needed
Prospects Needed ÷ Response Rate = Emails Needed
```

**Example:** $1M ARR ÷ $20K deals = 50 deals; ÷ 25% win rate = 200 opportunities; at 10% response rate and 10% response-to-qualified conversion = 20,000 emails ≈ 2-3 SDRs (each sends 300-500/month).

| Metric | Benchmark |
|--------|-----------|
| Emails per SDR per day | 50-100 |
| Response rate | 9-15% |
| Qualified opportunities per SDR per month | 10-20 |
| AE demo-to-close rate | 20-30% |
| Average sales cycle | 30-90 days |

See [references/pipeline-math.md](references/pipeline-math.md) when sizing the SDR team to a revenue target — it has the full capacity-planning and revenue-modeling templates.

## Building the Sales Development Team

See [references/case-studies.md](references/case-studies.md) when you want a worked precedent for standing up or scaling the machine — it walks through Salesforce, HubSpot, and other implementations with starting state, results, and failure modes.

### Hiring SDRs

Hire for coachability (the most important trait), curiosity, strong writing, resilience, and organization — experience is optional. Source recent graduates, career changers, and internal transfers. Career path: SDR (6-18 months) → Senior SDR → AE or SDR Manager.

### SDR Ramp Time

| Phase | Timeline | Expectations |
|-------|----------|-------------|
| Training | Weeks 1-2 | Product knowledge, tools, process |
| Shadowing | Weeks 3-4 | Observe experienced SDRs, practice |
| Ramping | Months 2-3 | 50% of quota |
| Full quota | Month 4+ | 100% of quota |

Expect 3-4 months to full productivity.

### SDR Compensation

Base + variable, typically 60/40 or 70/30. Pay variable per qualified opportunity generated, with bonuses for opportunities that close and for exceeding quota.

See [references/team-building.md](references/team-building.md) when hiring or building the comp plan — it has interview scorecards, the onboarding curriculum, and detailed compensation structures.

## Metrics and Dashboards

### Leading Indicators (Predictive)

Emails sent per SDR per day, response rate, meetings booked per week, qualified opportunities per month, pipeline value generated.

### Lagging Indicators (Results)

Revenue closed, win rate, average deal size, sales cycle length, customer acquisition cost (CAC).

### Efficiency Metrics

Cost per qualified opportunity, SDR:AE ratio (typically 2-3 SDRs per AE), LTV:CAC (target >3:1), payback period.

**Cadence:** daily activity metrics → weekly pipeline → monthly revenue → quarterly efficiency.

See [references/metrics.md](references/metrics.md) when building the sales dashboard — it has KPI definitions, formulas, and dashboard layouts by cadence.

## Common Mistakes

| Mistake | Why It Fails | Fix |
|---------|-------------|------|
| **AEs prospecting** | Feast-or-famine pipeline | Hire dedicated SDRs |
| **Long, pitchy emails** | Low response rate | Short, referral-focused emails |
| **No ICP definition** | Effort wasted on wrong accounts | Define ICP before hiring SDRs |
| **Too few SDRs** | Not enough pipeline | Work backward from revenue goal |
| **No hand-off process** | Leads fall through cracks | Standardize SDR→AE handoff |
| **Measuring activity, not results** | Busy but not productive | Track qualified opportunities, not emails |

## Quick Diagnostic

Audit any B2B sales process:

| Question | If No | Action |
|----------|-------|--------|
| Are prospecting and closing separated? | SDRs doing both = bottleneck | Create dedicated SDR role |
| Is there a defined outbound process? | Ad-hoc prospecting | Implement Cold Calling 2.0 |
| Can you predict pipeline 3 months out? | Revenue is unpredictable | Build pipeline math model |
| Do you know your lead type mix? | Over-reliance on one source | Balance seeds, nets, spears |
| Is SDR→AE handoff standardized? | Leads lost in transition | Create handoff checklist |

## Further Reading

For the complete system:

- [*"Predictable Revenue"*](https://www.amazon.com/Predictable-Revenue-Business-Practices-Salesforce-com/dp/0984380213?tag=wondelai00-20) by Aaron Ross & Marylou Tyler
- [*"From Impossible to Inevitable"*](https://www.amazon.com/Impossible-Inevitable-Hyper-Growth-Companies-Predictable/dp/1119166713?tag=wondelai00-20) by Aaron Ross & Jason Lemkin (scaling to $100M+ ARR)

## About the Author

**Aaron Ross** built the outbound sales process at Salesforce.com that added $100M+ in recurring revenue, and co-founded Predictable Revenue Inc. His book *Predictable Revenue* — known as "The Bible of Outbound Sales" — made Cold Calling 2.0 the standard for B2B outbound prospecting.